For the duration of the Vendée Globe, Tip & Shaft brings you an in-depth look at the weather and the trajectories of the 40 solo sailors, with Loïs Berrehar and Gaston Morvan, 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Solitaire du Figaro Paprec 2024, taking turns every other week. Loïs Berrehar is at the helm this Friday.
“Last week, Gaston told you about the two possible options for negotiating a ridge of high pressure on the route of the Vendée Globe skippers: Jean Le Cam, followed by Conrad Colman, had opted for an easterly trajectory, initially closer to the direct route, which enabled him to top several rankings, because he was making headway when the others were stopped in the ridge. It’s always a case of playing the curvature of the anticyclone or the strength of the wind, and he favored the second option, which meant he was stopped for less time; on the other hand, when the whole western group set off again, they benefited from a good angle, which enabled them to accelerate very quickly.
The result was a new 24-hour record for Yoann Richomme (551.84 miles, at an average speed of 23 knots). Conditions were ideal for this, with a well-directed trade wind and fairly flat seas. I also think he was keen to let off steam after a few days slowing in light winds, and to work hard to catch up with the boats ahead, because it’s important over the next few days to be in the right pack, as we’ll see.
The vast majority therefore stayed on a more westerly course, and we saw when negotiating the Doldrums that the further west you were, the more it paid off, allowing Thomas Ruyant to take the lead. The rule in the books that the only way to get through the Doldrums is from the west proved true once again. Sam Goodchild, who was a little further east, fared less well. At the extreme, Jean Le Cam has lost a lot. His strategy paid off in the short term, much less in the medium/long term. Even if, in the end, he’s more or less at the same level as the other daggerboard boats, albeit with an easterly offset that could see him lose a little ground.
The frontrunners are now in the Southern Hemisphere trade winds, and haven’t been slowed down too much in the Doldrums, even if there have been some stops for some who have experienced phases of almost zero progress, at 1 or 2 knots. As for the latecomers, led by the first daggerboard boats, they’re not quite out of it yet, as can be seen on the satellite image above, they’re still impacted by the large cloud mass. Deliverance is close at hand, but in the end, they’re going to be more than 400 miles behind and will lose even more on the reaching leg to Brazil, as they’re going much slower than the foilers in these conditions.
We can expect the foilers to keep up a steady pace along the coast of Brazil. As soon as there’s about fifteen knots of wind, the foilers create so much apparent wind that they’re capable of lining up impressive average speeds. Charlie Dalin, for example, has considerably accelerated, gaining 80 miles on Thomas Ruyant in 24 hours. This can be explained in part by the problem with Thomas’ J3 cylinder last night, but also by the fact that Charlie benefited from a slightly better angle thanks to his slightly more easterly position.
After that, it’s also a question of Macif’s ability to start in medium conditions; at these speeds, the sailor and the boat form a formidable pair, as we saw at the start of the Vendée. We’ll see what happens in the Southern Ocean, but Charlie has a knack of never losing too much when conditions are less favorable to his boat.
Strategically, the challenge now is for the frontrunners not to miss the St. Helena train, which means catching a low-pressure system forming north of Rio de Janeiro on Sunday morning, which is able to squeeze in from west to east between two high-pressure centers and can take them on a fairly direct course towards the Cape of Good Hope. It’s not very wide, as you can see from this routing image of the first foilers (in green) and daggerboard boats (in black) at 9pm on Monday.
It’s not a “real” southern low, but it should enable the leading group – let’s say the fifteen or so boats that are within 200 miles of each other – to keep some wind and relatively flat seas throughout the stretch between Brazil and the Indian Ocean. There will certainly be a fair number of gybes to be made, and they’ll need to know how to weigh up wind strength, sea state and angle, but the train looks good to go. On the other hand, the Imoca daggerboards may not make it through, as the St. Helena anticyclone is set to re-inflate and will no doubt force them to make the long haul. I’m afraid it’s going to take them a long time, and we’ll end up in a big week in Good Hope, with two separate races in this Vendée Globe.
Overall, we can see that all the favourites are at the front, there are no big surprises so far, but some of them have been quite impressive in this first part of the Vendée Globe, and I would of course mention Sam Goodchild. He’s been the boss for a long time, has sailed very cleanly and is still at the front with a boat that isn’t the latest generation, so you can see that he’s a solid guy. Sébastien Simon, too, is always on the ball, and I think Clarisse (Crémer) is also doing very well, as she no longer has her big gennaker and manages to stay in the lead.
And if we’re talking about the girls, Justine (Mettraux) is having a crazy race, and is also very close to the leaders with a boat from the previous generation. I’m more worried about Louis Burton, who had a structural problem last week. He certainly managed to repair it, he was as brave as he was impressive, but the damage was really significant, the crack went all the way around the deck, it’s not easy to head south in these conditions. In any case, it’s a very tight Vendée Globe at the moment, there’s a real battle going on, and we’ve rarely seen such a compact fleet after almost two weeks of racing, with just one retirement to boot.”
